995 coupons · 2007 to 2026
Pools base rates
The pools base rates, counted from 48,551 coupon matches since 2007: a card of 49 gives about 22 home wins, 16 away wins and 12 draws. Coupon position does not predict the result.
On an average card of 49
43.9%
31.8%
17.5%
6.7%
Does the coupon number matter?
No. Only 3 of 49 positions differ from the overall home rate of 43.9% by two standard errors or more, and pure chance predicts about 2.5. Position 1 is the most home-heavy at 48.5%, which fits promoters leading a card with a strong home fixture, but on this evidence it is not a system you can bet.
All 49 positions, one by one
| No | Matches | Home win | Away win | Score draw | No-score draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 991 | 48.5% | 28.1% | 16.4% | 7.0% |
| 2 | 993 | 41.2% | 34.4% | 16.6% | 7.8% |
| 3 | 991 | 44.3% | 31.8% | 16.4% | 7.5% |
| 4 | 994 | 43.1% | 32.9% | 17.4% | 6.6% |
| 5 | 992 | 47.0% | 30.8% | 16.6% | 5.5% |
| 6 | 992 | 47.7% | 29.8% | 15.5% | 7.0% |
| 7 | 992 | 41.3% | 32.1% | 19.1% | 7.6% |
| 8 | 985 | 43.9% | 34.2% | 15.5% | 6.4% |
| 9 | 991 | 40.7% | 33.3% | 18.2% | 7.9% |
| 10 | 992 | 43.1% | 32.2% | 18.0% | 6.7% |
| 11 | 993 | 44.6% | 29.2% | 19.7% | 6.4% |
| 12 | 990 | 44.8% | 30.7% | 17.7% | 6.8% |
| 13 | 990 | 42.4% | 31.8% | 19.2% | 6.6% |
| 14 | 993 | 46.6% | 28.0% | 19.0% | 6.3% |
| 15 | 990 | 45.3% | 31.4% | 16.7% | 6.7% |
| 16 | 990 | 45.1% | 33.5% | 15.8% | 5.7% |
| 17 | 994 | 45.0% | 32.5% | 15.9% | 6.6% |
| 18 | 990 | 42.5% | 32.6% | 17.2% | 7.7% |
| 19 | 992 | 42.6% | 30.6% | 19.2% | 7.6% |
| 20 | 989 | 41.2% | 30.7% | 19.8% | 8.3% |
| 21 | 992 | 43.2% | 31.1% | 18.3% | 7.3% |
| 22 | 989 | 42.2% | 33.3% | 17.2% | 7.4% |
| 23 | 991 | 43.5% | 30.6% | 19.0% | 7.0% |
| 24 | 992 | 43.6% | 30.5% | 17.9% | 7.9% |
| 25 | 988 | 44.0% | 31.8% | 18.0% | 6.2% |
| 26 | 992 | 41.7% | 32.4% | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| 27 | 989 | 42.1% | 32.8% | 18.6% | 6.6% |
| 28 | 991 | 46.7% | 30.3% | 16.5% | 6.5% |
| 29 | 989 | 44.3% | 32.0% | 17.8% | 6.0% |
| 30 | 989 | 41.7% | 33.7% | 17.6% | 7.1% |
| 31 | 992 | 45.4% | 30.6% | 18.0% | 5.9% |
| 32 | 989 | 44.3% | 31.2% | 17.8% | 6.7% |
| 33 | 990 | 44.1% | 31.5% | 18.1% | 6.3% |
| 34 | 992 | 44.7% | 31.5% | 16.9% | 7.0% |
| 35 | 992 | 42.0% | 34.5% | 16.3% | 7.2% |
| 36 | 993 | 43.5% | 31.4% | 18.9% | 6.1% |
| 37 | 991 | 43.2% | 33.3% | 16.9% | 6.7% |
| 38 | 992 | 44.7% | 31.6% | 17.5% | 6.3% |
| 39 | 992 | 44.0% | 31.5% | 19.0% | 5.6% |
| 40 | 989 | 45.2% | 30.9% | 17.1% | 6.8% |
| 41 | 992 | 43.9% | 31.0% | 17.6% | 7.5% |
| 42 | 990 | 45.4% | 31.8% | 17.0% | 5.9% |
| 43 | 991 | 44.8% | 33.6% | 15.6% | 6.0% |
| 44 | 992 | 45.3% | 31.9% | 16.3% | 6.6% |
| 45 | 992 | 42.4% | 31.9% | 19.2% | 6.6% |
| 46 | 987 | 44.1% | 32.7% | 15.9% | 7.3% |
| 47 | 990 | 43.1% | 33.1% | 17.3% | 6.5% |
| 48 | 990 | 45.5% | 31.7% | 16.4% | 6.5% |
| 49 | 989 | 43.4% | 33.8% | 16.8% | 6.1% |
Year by year
The split barely moves from one year to the next. That stability is the point: it is what makes a base rate worth knowing.
Every year since 2007
| Year | Matches | Home win | Away win | Score draw | No-score draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 824 | 44.4% | 29.4% | 19.5% | 6.7% |
| 2008 | 2533 | 43.6% | 32.3% | 16.5% | 7.6% |
| 2009 | 2527 | 44.1% | 29.6% | 18.8% | 7.6% |
| 2010 | 2528 | 45.4% | 29.3% | 18.5% | 6.8% |
| 2011 | 2575 | 43.1% | 32.4% | 17.2% | 7.3% |
| 2012 | 2539 | 44.3% | 31.3% | 18.3% | 6.1% |
| 2013 | 2545 | 44.5% | 32.7% | 16.5% | 6.4% |
| 2014 | 2544 | 45.1% | 32.1% | 16.1% | 6.7% |
| 2015 | 2538 | 43.6% | 33.3% | 17.2% | 5.9% |
| 2016 | 2589 | 43.2% | 32.8% | 17.0% | 7.0% |
| 2017 | 2543 | 46.3% | 30.2% | 16.0% | 7.4% |
| 2018 | 2547 | 43.8% | 31.8% | 17.9% | 6.6% |
| 2019 | 2541 | 44.3% | 31.8% | 17.2% | 6.8% |
| 2020 | 2545 | 41.8% | 31.9% | 18.7% | 7.6% |
| 2021 | 2546 | 43.4% | 32.2% | 17.2% | 7.2% |
| 2022 | 2594 | 42.7% | 33.0% | 17.7% | 6.6% |
| 2023 | 2544 | 45.3% | 31.0% | 18.1% | 5.6% |
| 2024 | 2545 | 43.4% | 32.5% | 17.8% | 6.2% |
| 2025 | 2543 | 44.0% | 32.5% | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| 2026 | 1861 | 42.2% | 33.1% | 18.2% | 6.5% |
Questions
What percentage of pools matches are home wins?
43.9%, counted from 48,551 coupon matches played between 8 September 2007 and 19 September 2026.
How many draws are on a typical pools coupon?
Draws of both kinds run at 24.3% of matches, so about 12 of the 49 on a card.
Does coupon position predict the result?
No. Only 3 of 49 positions differ from the overall home rate by two standard errors or more, and chance alone predicts about 2.5. Position 1 is the most home-heavy at 48.5%, which fits promoters leading with a strong home fixture, but it is not a system.
Have the pools base rates changed over time?
Barely. Across 20 years the home win stays between 41.8% and 46.3%.